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Statistics 101

Posted by on | January 2, 2018 | Comments Off

Check out this quote from the Arizona Republic

If the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook proves to be accurate, 2018 could turn out to be a scorcher as well. The outlook for the first three months of the year calls for a 50-percent probability of above average temperatures continuing.

Pop quiz:  If there’s a 50% chance of ABOVE average temperatures, what is the chance of BELOW average temperatures?  You guessed it!  50%.  So what do you think of that first line “2018 could turn out to be a scorcher as well.”?  Of course, since the Climate Prediction Center is also predicting at 50% chance of below average temperatures, I could rewrite the first line and say that 2018 could turn out to be a bitter year. 





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